After writing about the recent Democratic U.S. Senate debate, I imagined we’d all be making plans last week to crank up the Whirly Pop and gather Thursday night in the living room for Maine’s latest fifteen minutes of fame: a prime-time debate on CNN.
A whole hour of Maine on CNN. Wow. What would a watching nation learn about us? It sounded both a little scary and too good to be true, which it was.
The “Troy Army” had other plans.
A quick explainer for those failing to read these important dispatches or not following Maine’s Senate race as closely as the recent World Cup.
Maine Democrats had a shit show on their hands as it became clear that Graham Platner’s baggage would finally subsume his charismatic candidacy and impressive grassroots movement. The party needed a process for picking a new nominee—in a crucial race, on a tight timeframe—that was more open and inclusive (or at least appeared to be) than the rushed Joe Biden to Kamala Harris coronation two years ago that only served to reinforce the scale of Biden’s blunder in running for a second term in the first place and denying Democrats a competitive primary.
A redo of the senate primary was out of the question. Instead, the Maine Democratic Party asked interested candidates to declare by July 15 and then set a date of July 25 for a special nominating convention. Democrats in Maine’s sixteen counties had a short window to sign up to be delegates to the convention. Each county then held a caucus on July 18 or 19 where Democrats voted on proportional slates of delegates to represent them and choose a new Senate candidate.
As the caucuses got underway, word began to spread on social media of a move—en masse, county by county—to elect slates of delegates pledged to Troy Jackson. By the time the caucuses wrapped, Jackson’s opponents had all withdrawn and Maine’s new presumptive Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate was on a conference call thanking his team of grassroots organizers and volunteers across the state.
Thus far, Maine Democrats appear to have made the best of a bad situation. Though reporters covering the caucuses did note collective pockets of Democrats who felt blindsided or disenfranchised by the quick coronation, the process was as open and transparent as possible under the compressed timeframe.
In hindsight, Troy Jackson’s complete domination should not have come as a surprise. The progressive policies he backs are similar to those at the center of Graham Platner’s rise. Unlike Platner, Jackson began the work of organizing around—and fighting for—these principles more than two decades ago.
Jackson’s journey from the North Woods into politics began nearly 30 years ago, at a protest at the Canadian border.
“For the second day in a row, a group of American loggers parked their pickup trucks in the middle of the road near a remote border crossing in northwestern Aroostook County. The loggers are upset with the way Canadian logging companies are doing business in Maine,” a news report at the time said.
Jackson was among a group of unemployed loggers who used their pickup trucks to blockade the St. Pamphile border crossing with Canada. They were protesting what they said were labor law violations by companies that hired Canadian loggers to cut American wood in the vast timber lots near Jackson’s hometown of Allagash.
Then just 31 years old, Jackson joined the protesters in arguing that American woodcutters were losing job opportunities or working for less.
Troy Jackson is about to go under the national microscope. Here’s a look at his past, Steve Mistler, Maine Public, July 28, 2026
Jackson already has his own network of longtime advisers, volunteers, labor unions and other supportive groups in place from his run for governor and his many years of grassroots organizing in Aroostook County and vote whipping in Augusta.
Before Platner’s withdrawal was even official, Jackson’s network mobilized rapidly to solidify already established alliances with Platner’s movement and appeal directly to all voters who cast primary ballots and drove record-breaking turnout on June 9th.
The General Election
What limited polling there’s been thus far on Collins v. Jackson shows a margin of error contest ahead.
It’s tempting—with the stakes so high—to believe the spin coming from one side or the other about why their candidate will win or why their opponent is fatally flawed. Take all of this with a grain of salt, and with knowledge of the partisan passions it’s meant to inflame.
I think this race is likely to remain tight with either side capable of pulling out a victory in November. There are a few overarching dynamics hanging over the election that will continue to shape the strategies the campaigns pursue.
The Political Environment
Recent national polling continues to show a dismal political environment for President Trump and the Republican Party.
Several findings in the latest Fox News Poll show voters are unhappy and want major change, which bodes well for Democrats in November: President Donald Trump’s job approval remains near a record low, more Democrats are motivated to vote, Republicans join Democrats and independents in rating the economy negatively, and 4 in 10 voters want “dramatic” or “revolutionary” change. Plus, more view the GOP as tied to elites than the Democratic Party.
Voters say Democrats can better handle income inequality (+22 points), healthcare (+21), inflation (+10), the economy (+9), and foreign policy (+7). Republicans hold the advantage on crime (+7 points), while government spending (Democrats +3) and national security (R +2) are more evenly divided. On immigration, the GOP had an 8-point edge in April. Now, Democrats are preferred by one point.
Fox News Poll: Voters want major change amid economic and political discontent July 22, 2026
As summer grinds on, the Congressional recess nears and regular folks (you know, normal people, not the politically obsessed) put out the do-not-disturb sign for August, the national political press is always looking for conflict-leaden storylines to drive clicks and page views in an otherwise dead zone.
The upheaval on the Democratic side of arguably the nation’s most important U.S. Senate race has been a gift from the digital media gods.
It has all the ingredients of a brisk summer page turner consumed in a tanning session or two at the beach.
There is scandal and political intrigue. The race to find a suitable replacement for a unique candidate in a unique election. Hope and uncertainty over said replacement. And fresh opportunities for fiery segments on CNN, MS NOW and Fox News on the political counter narrative of the summer: the evolving fight inside the Democratic Party between DSA-aligned candidates and those backed by the “normie” establishment.
But Donald Trump is Donald Trump: a man incapable of ceding the spotlight to anyone or anything for long—Republicans locked in tight re-election races be damned.
The recent and predictable collapse of the Iran cease fire has plunged the U.S. back into a war that’s inflicting compounding economic damage on average Americans by the day.
Trump’s recent unhinged speech on election security raised dystopian fears about what sort of meddling he might be capable of.
Tariffs are back from the dead with Trump’s recent moves to put new levies on more than 80 countries, including Canada, in an attempt to circumvent the authority of the U.S. Supreme Court.
And in Maine, the recent killing of a Columbian immigrant by an ICE officer with an unstable history has put everything voters dislike about Trump’s draconian approach to immigration enforcement back in the spotlight.
So despite summer distractions, political or otherwise, the overall environment for the GOP hasn't changed, is unlikely to get any better and could get much worse between now and Election Day.
The Collins Money Advantage
Despite the adverse political environment, Susan Collins retains a decisive money advantage over her opponent. In her latest campaign finance filing, Collins reported having $11 million in cash on hand. Troy Jackson reported raising $2 million in the days before and after he officially became the nominee.
Jackson faces two major challenges.
His grassroots network in Maine, a formidable asset on key priorities like on-the-ground organizing and turnout, is under pressure to raise enough in small dollar donations to begin making up ground on Collins in the overall campaign money race. Quickly standing up a national fundraising network and donor base for Jackson will also be crucial.
The challenge facing the campaign on PAC funding is more daunting.
Ms. Collins is relying on a web of deep-pocketed outside groups, funded largely by billionaire megadonors, to spend tens of millions of dollars on advertising promoting her and attacking the Democratic nominee. Her campaign, her allies and other groups aligned with Senate Republican leadership have already reserved about $60 million in airtime through the fall, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact.
That is far more than the roughly $24 million that Senate Democrats’ main super PAC and its affiliates have allocated to ads in Maine, though more could be on the way.
After Democratic Shake-Up, Susan Collins Holds Enormous Cash Edge in Maine, The New York Times, Saturday July 25, 2005
When Platner was the nominee, PACs aligned with Collins were a major driver of the advertising strategy (more below) being used to make the race competitive under hostile conditions.
This basic approach does not appear to be changing despite Democrats midstream candidate switch.
So national unions and Democratic PACs aligned with Jackson’s message and agenda must find a way to make up ground.
It’s a tough assignment—even in an election year where so many fundamentals favor Democrats.
How Susan Collins Wins
For all of the upheaval in this race on the Democratic side, Collins’s path to victory remains the same as it was a month ago—with a few tweaks around the edges.
To prevail in November, Collins must find a way to reassemble her 2020 electoral coalition of Republicans and Unenrolled and moderate Democratic voters—especially those ticket splitters who’ve previously pulled the lever for outgoing Governor Janet Mills and Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden. It’s not a stretch to say that if Collins had her way this would mostly be accomplished via “feel good” advertising and stories about the $1.5 billion she’s brought to Maine over the past five years as a member of the Senate Appropriations committee.
Collins wants voters to focus on what life would be like in Maine without her seniority and influence in Washington. The problem is that 2026 is a uniquely horrible year for incumbents. Susan Collins’s job approval rating is decisively underwater in most polling, mirroring the electorate’s deep discontent with President Trump and his performance on the issues Mainers and Americans say they care about the most. It’s the challenging political environment that’s shaping how Collins, her political team and the outside PACs supporting her are using the vast financial resources at their disposal.
As in her past re-election efforts, Mainers are being bombarded with direct mail and ads on their TVs, smart phones and social media feeds reminding them of the countless ways their lives are being improved by the federal funding Collins delivers on an annual basis. But to an even greater extent than in 2020, victory can only be achieved if the alternative is seen as weak, dangerous, radical, corrupt, out of touch or all of the above.
Senator Collins previewed an initial line of attack against her new opponent last week.
When Graham Platner was the nominee, PACs supporting Collins ran non-stop adds attacking the Democrat’s growing list of character issues. It was one easy storyline, served up daily, about the risk of trading a known quantity for a charismatic, yet unstable, untrustworthy newcomer.
Collins and her team seemed increasingly comfortable running against Platner. Troy Jackson’s emergence complicates their strategy. As it was with Platner, defining Jackson negatively is critical to Collins’s success. Her “Bernie Bros” comment ties into one theme Maine voters should expect to hear more of between now and November: Jackson as a radical, outside of the mainstream socialist who backs a far left agenda that has been discredited by voters in the past.
Shortly after Jackson’s official nomination, the Pine Tree Results PAC debuted its first ad in the rejiggered race.
The hope here is that Platner will be the gift that keeps on giving though it seems dubious that Maine voters will hold Jackson responsible for Platner’s sins. Collins-aligned PACs are already expanding their lines of attack against Jackson to include his temperament as a leader and his record during his years in the legislature. The question is whether they’ll find anything that sticks in a year where so much of the focus is on dissatisfaction with the president and his party, and with elected officials seen as aiding and abetting the various messes voters are so angry about.
How Troy Jackson Wins
On Saturday morning, Troy Jackson capped a whirlwind two weeks by accepting the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in a room full of excited delegates and supporters in Bangor.
While Jackson faces a difficult challenge, the ingredients for victory in November exist.
So how does he pull it off?
First, restating the obvious, there needs to be an immediate all hands on deck effort to level the financial playing field, at least somewhat, heading into the fall campaign. Sara Gideon outspent Susan Collins in 2020 and had nothing to show for it. Money isn’t everything in politics, but it’s important, especially in federal races.
To win this race, Troy Jackson must assemble his own unique coalition of Democrats, and Unenrolled or Independent voters who have consistently chosen Collins over her previous Democratic opponents.
Let’s start with rank and file Dems who make up a majority of the party’s registered voters.
In 2020, as I noted in a piece back in May, Susan Collins beat Sara Gideon among Republicans by margin of 91% to 4%. But Gideon only managed to best Collins among Democrats by a 84% to 13% margin.
To win this race, I think Jackson needs to win Democrats in 2026 by roughly the same margin that Collins won Republicans in 2020.
There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic that he can do this.
In the current political environment, Democrats are angry and seem ready to crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. This enthusiasm gap with Trump not on the ballot also means it’s likely that some hard core MAGA folks stay home, which would give Jackson a little more wiggle room on the margins he needs with Democrats.
Sara Gideon was not a candidate who lit the Democratic base on fire. Graham Platner was doing that in 2026. But while Platner’s charisma was powerful, I don’t believe he would have assembled such a huge following so quickly if he was selling steak knives, bibles or wind chimes. He gave voice to a rage and discontent about how far the country has fallen under Donald Trump, his unhinged second administration and a system of politics and governance controlled and practiced by the wealthy elite in both parties.
Troy Jackson has been giving voice to these unpleasant truths for decades.
Yes, he doesn’t have Platner’s charisma.
And guess what? It’s not going to matter.
What Jackson lacks in cigarette-tinged, gravelly, central casting eloquence he makes up for with life experiences that are more authentically Maine than his predecessor in the race, and on equal footing with the other politician from the County he faces in November.
Jackson is a fifth generation logger
He was born to a 16 year old mother, raised Catholic and grew up poor
He first made a name for himself in 1998 by leading a weeklong logging blockade of the U.S. Canada border in protest of alleged unfair labor practices by large corporate forestland owners
He was first elected to the Maine legislature as an Independent in 2002 before becoming a Democrat
He served as President of the Maine Senate from 2018 to 2024
Some refer to him by his nickname: “Johnny Cash of the Allagash.”
The Troy Jackson story is a story built for the current political moment in Maine. But that doesn’t mean it will automatically catch fire. For that to happen, there will need to be a strong spirit of egoless collaboration between the core group of folks that have been in the trenches with Troy for a long time and newcomers whose expertise will be needed to have a real chance of winning.
Graham Platner’s campaign built one of the best grassroots volunteer political armies Maine has ever seen. But there was clear tension between Platner, his campaign and the Maine Democratic Party as things fell apart. Troy Jackson’s team and the Maine Democratic Party must now do whatever is necessary to mend any fences, acknowledge the scale of Platner’s organizing achievement and get the architects of his voter outreach operation energized and fully on board to elect Troy.
Finding the right mix of messaging for specific segments of the electorate is also critical.
A vast majority of Maine Democrats are already highly motivated to vote against Susan Collins.
They’re likely to be receptive to messages like these and others that drive contrasts between the lived reality of lower-and middle-income working people in Maine and the financial circumstances of those who have benefitted the most from Susan Collins’s support for key Trump priorities like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
It’s not hard to imagine an ad where footage of the president showing off architectural sketches of his ballroom or arch fades to a dimly lit kitchen table and a Maine couple, agonizing over a home heating oil bill, as a narrator hits Collins for not doing more to protect them from the consequences of Trump’s grandiose fixations.
The problem for Jackson and his team is that candidate messaging and campaign advertising like this is less likely to sway the small, but influential bloc of independent voters that will decide this election.
These are folks who have voted for Collins before, multiple times in many cases. They feel like they know her and are not likely to be convinced, even when presented with selective evidence from her voting record, that she has left Team Maine for Team Billionaire.
So how does the Jackson campaign reach these folks and convince them to dump Collins?
The best politicians are able to use an opponent’s recent record in office to frame an election as a choice about the future.
Those same independent voters in Maine who’ve voted for Susan Collins over and over again are most likely pretty unsettled about the direction America is heading in under Donald Trump and an unchecked Republican Party.
They have kids, grandkids, jobs, businesses, mortgages, rent payments, health care premiums, auto loans, investment accounts and 401Ks. And when they look out at the country, they see a reckless war of choice, high gas and energy prices, an unstable economy with persistent inflation, violence in the streets (otherwise known as immigration enforcement), threats to free and fair elections, an unstable chief executive and no oversight or accountability being exercised by others in positions of leadership.
And it scares them.
To win the support of enough of these voters, Troy Jackson doesn’t need to convince them that Susan Collins has somehow changed or is someone she’s not.
He simply needs to make a persuasive daily case that returning the Republicans to the majority in Congress—and leaving the president’s power unchecked—will put the nation’s economic security and the economic security of every Maine family at risk.